Thematic report concerning how climatic changes affect aviation in Northern Norway
Aviation report 2026/02
Flying in Northern Norway during winter is inherently demanding, with variable and often challenging weather conditions. Local geographical conditions at airports, particularly coastal exposure and topography, vary significantly and impact local climate conditions. Sunday 12 February 2023 was marked by demanding weather conditions that posed significant challenges for air traffic at Tromsø Airport, Langnes. All the major airlines – SAS, Widerøe and Norwegian – reported a total of six incidents related to heavy precipitation and strong winds on flights to or from Tromsø Airport, Langnes. Several aviation stakeholders felt that operating conditions had become increasingly challenging in recent years, prompting the NSIA to investigate whether winter aviation weather in Northern Norway had changed.
The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET) was commissioned by the Norwegian Safety Investigation Authority (NSIA) to prepare a comprehensive report investigating the issue. The analysis shows that the challenging winter weather conditions for aviation in Northern Norway and Svalbard are largely driven by the location and intensity of large-scale synoptic low-pressure systems. A typical track for these low-pressure systems is that they form off the northeast coast of the United States, develop as they move northeastwards, pass over Iceland, with most continuing into the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, while others follow a more zonal1 track towards Southern Norway and Central and Southern Europe.
Since 1991, the trend has been for a higher number of low-pressure systems to follow a more southerly zonal track. Most low-pressure systems will nevertheless move into the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. No general historical trend has been observed from 1991 to 2023 indicating a deterioration of winter weather conditions for aviation in Northern Norway and Svalbard. The results likewise show no general trend towards a higher frequency or deterioration of winter weather conditions for aviation in Northern Norway in the future. However, local and regional changes may be expected.
Substantial year-to-year variation in the frequency and severity of weather impacts on aviation has been documented, and this variability is expected to continue to be significant in the future, dominating any moderate trends.
How different weather phenomena may change in a future climate is complex, and estimates of future changes therefore carry uncertainty.
Several learning points have been identified. They include the benefit of using high-resolution models to anticipate weather situations that are known from experience to create challenging aviation weather. In addition, the investigation has increased understanding of local weather conditions at several airports in Northern Norway. A potential change in aviation weather conditions in Southern Norway has also been identified. The NSIA issues safety recommendations concerning these three topics through increasing knowledge and providing more accurate weather forecasting and thereby enhancing flight safety. The NSIA issues safety recommendations on these three issues to improve aviation safety by increasing knowledge and providing more accurate weather forecasting.
Published 13.02.2026
Safety recommendation
Safety Recommendation Aviation No 2026/02T
Through its work on the thematic investigation, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute has determined that high-resolution model runs (300–500 m horizontal resolution) are necessary to achieve the precision required to describe local weather processes in complex terrain. The operational models currently in use (with 2.5 km and 9 km horizontal resolution) have limited capability to capture such small-scale phenomena. High-resolution models can therefore provide greater insight both retrospectively, by improving understanding of local mechanisms after weather events, and prospectively, as decision support ahead of identified challenging conditions.
The Norwegian Safety Investigation Authority recommends that the Ministry of Climate and Environment ensure that the Norwegian Meteorological Institute has sufficient resources to use high-resolution models when necessary.
Safety Recommendation Aviation No 2026/03T
The thematic investigation on how climatic changes impact aviation in Northern Norway has investigated and identified local weather-related conditions at several airports in Northern Norway. Several factors have been identified that could enhance safety and make aviation in Northern Norway more resilient to weather-related challenges, while also strengthening preparedness.
The Norwegian Safety Investigation Authority recommends that the Civil Aviation Authority Norway initiate a project in which airport operators, air traffic services and airlines identify potential operational learning points for individual airports based on the report from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Furthermore, the Civil Aviation Authority Norway is asked to ensure that the relevant learning points are implemented in operational practice.
Safety Recommendation Aviation No 2026/04T
The thematic investigation of how climate change impacts aviation has been geographically limited to Northern Norway, north of the Arctic Circle, and seasonally restricted to the winter period from October to April. The investigation indicates that shifts in the tracks of low-pressure systems may increase low-pressure activity along the coast of Southern Norway. Furthermore, the scientific literature suggests that convection and associated challenging aviation weather may become more frequent at more southerly latitudes.
The Norwegian Safety Investigation Authority recommends that the Civil Aviation Authority Norway facilitate a comparable climate investigation by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, covering all seasons in Southern Norway, to identify potential operational learning points. Furthermore, the Civil Aviation Authority Norway is asked to ensure that the relevant learning points are implemented in operational practice.
Facts
| Location | Northern Norway, north of the polar circle |
| Occurrence date | 12.02.2023 |
| ICAO Location indicator | ENTC |
| Operator | SAS, Norwegian, Widerøe, Babcock and Norwegian Air Force |
| Registration | Temaundersøkelse |
| Meteorological conditions | IMC |
| Type of occurrence | Incident |
| Type of operation | Scheduled air transport / SAR/ambulance |
| Category of operation | Heavy, aeroplane (> 10 000kg) / Medium, aeroplane (5 700 - 10 000kg) |
| Aircraft category | Landplane, Multi-engine, Single-engine, Turbofan/Turbojet, Turboprop/turboshaft |
| FIR/AOR | ENOB (Bodø FIC/OFIR) |